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Wednesday, August 29, 2012

Economists Hop on Recovery Bandwagon



 















By Steve Cook, Rismedia

Bank of America’s announcement recently that it has significantly improved its home price forecast for the current year made headlines; in fact, the bank joins a growing list of housing economists who have seen the light and hopped on the recovery bandwagon.

Bank of America improved its price forecast for the year from a .5 percent increase over 2011 to a 2 percent increase, citing shrinking inventory and a shift toward short sales.

Perhaps the biggest about face on prices came from Zillow’s Chief Economist Stan Humphries, who said in February that home values, as measured by the popular site’s automated valuation mode, would fall 3.7 percent compared to 4.7 percent last year, and he didn’t forecast a national bottom for housing prices until 2013. In late July, Humphries greatly revised his opinion, stating: “The housing market has finally turned a corner. In Q2, we saw continued momentum in the housing recovery, despite of some economic turmoil, like flagging job growth numbers and sovereign debt issues in Europe. Nationally we hit a bottom in the first quarter of the year, and the Zillow Home Value Forecast shows that 67 of the 156 markets it covers will experience an increase in home values over the next 12 months. Nationally, Zillow forecasts home values will rise 1.1 percent.” That’s a net change of 4.8 percent in six months.




clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 

Tuesday, August 28, 2012

Shadow Inventory???





August 2012 U.S. Economic & Housing Market Outlook from Freddie Mac
The Shadow

The ominously termed “shadow inventory” is casting a pall of uncertainty over recent signs that home values have bottomed out. What’s behind it, and is it as threatening as it sounds? That’s an important question because house-price news has been decidedly good over the past quarter. The Freddie Mac House Price Index for the U.S. showed a brisk 4.8 percent gain from March to June 2012, the largest quarterly pickup in eight years; the national index
posted a June-to-June rise of 1 percent, the largest annual appreciation since November 2006. Further, the improvement was relatively broad-based. In fact, 34 states and the District of Columbia posted higher home values during the 12 months through June 2012, the largest number of states registering positive annual appreciation since April 2007.

Other house-price metrics also suggest the market is strengthening. The CoreLogic index for the U.S. was up 2.5 percent June-to-June (and up 3.2 percent when distressed home sales were excluded), and the Federal Housing Finance Agency House Price Index posted yearover- year gains through May. So, have we arrived at the house-price inflection point or is there a shadow inventory lurking ready to send house prices tumbling again?

Various measures of the housing inventory suggest that there is a shadow but it’s not so foreboding. In fact the so-called shadow inventory has shrunk. And even if some local markets continue to be lopsided, the nation as a whole may shortly return to a healthy supply and-demand balance. “Shadow inventory” does not have a generally accepted definition within the industry. One simple metric is the stock of single-family loans that are seriously delinquent; that is, at least 90 days past due or in foreclosure proceedings. Seriously delinquent borrowers are clearly experiencing financial distress and in jeopardy of losing their homes through foreclosure, with the property entering the real-estate-owned (REO) inventory of a financial institution. The subsequent sale of an REO property often occurs at a discounted price and can weaken surrounding property values, which is central to the concern that any current home-value gains may be fleeting.

The Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey places the stock of seriously delinquent loans around 3.6 million (after adjusting for an estimated 88 percent survey coverage) as of March 31, 2012. While down about 1.4 million from its peak at year-end 2009, it remains substantially above the pre-2008 levels and casts a long shadow across the market.

Although the shadow persists, there is an important difference between today’s market and that of recent years: the excess supply of vacant homes is substantially reduced. The Census Bureau vacancy data showed a continuing decline in overall vacancies in U.S. homes that are for rent and for sale through the second quarter. Rental vacancy rates have fallen to 8.6 percent, the lowest since the second quarter of 2002. The for-sale vacancy rate has dipped to
2.1 percent, the least since the second quarter of 2006. To gauge the degree of excess vacant inventory, we computed the average vacancy rate in the for-rent and for-sale markets from 1994 to 2003, a decade in which the housing and mortgage markets were generally regarded as healthy. Using these average 10-year vacancy rates as a benchmark, we computed the excess amount of vacant for-rent or for-sale housing stock by comparing actual quarterly rental and homeowner vacancy rates with the 1994-2003 benchmark. As shown in the accompanying chart, the excess vacant “overhang” grew rapidly -- to close to two million dwellings -- from 2006 through 2009.

Such an unprecedented oversupply of housing stock exerted considerable downward pressure on rents and home values during much of the middle to end of the first decade of the 2000s. This housing “hangover” suppressed homebuilding. But the relatively small amount of new construction, coupled with increased household formation, has allowed much of the excess vacant inventory to be absorbed over the past couple years. The national data obscure the fact that some local markets have clearly tightened (that is, with rents rising and home-value gains) while others continue to have excess vacant stock. Nationally, the for-rent market now appears to be in relatively good balance, with the rental stock close to overall rental demand, resulting in “normal” vacancy levels.

This continuing shrinkage in excess vacant stock is important because it means that in most markets the REO homes on the for-sale market are not competing with an oversized vacant housing inventory. Thus, REO homes may be more attractive to investors and first-time buyers because fewer vacant homes are available, and REO sales will have less effect on other home sales or home values. Further, with the pickup in overall home sales so far this year, REO represents a smaller share of all sales: CoreLogic’s sales database revealed that REO had declined to 13.5 percent of all U.S. sales in May, the lowest share since March 2008. That’s good because a smaller share of REO sales typically boosts home values, because either buyer demand bids up REO prices or easing REO volume lessens downward price pressure on other homes on the local market. (It’s worth noting that while REO disposition remains a large part of many markets, short sales, loan modifications, and other foreclosure alternatives have helped to reduce the flow of properties into REO inventory.)

Less excess vacant stock plus fewer REOs enhances market values. Recent data continues to suggest that the bottom in the U.S. house-value cycle may have been reached. Even if national indexes dip in the seasonally weak autumn and winter months, the declines probably won’t be big enough to erase the good second-quarter news on home values. This means the housing recovery may finally be coming out from the shadows.

Frank E. Nothaft
Chief Economist

clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 

Monday, August 27, 2012

New State Fee for Fire Prevention Services




 
Property owners within the State Responsibility Area (SRA) will soon be receiving a bill requiring payment up to $150 per habitable structure for state fire prevention services.


In July of 2011, the Governor signed legislation (ABX1 29) requiring affected property owners to pay a fee for state fire prevention services in their area. The fee is applied to all habitable structures within the SRA.

The SRA is the area of the state where the State of California is financially responsible for the prevention and suppression of wildfires.  SRA does not include lands within city boundaries or in federal ownership. To see if your property is within the SRA, use the State Responsibility Area Viewer website:
http://www.firepreventionfee.org/sraviewer.php
The fee is levied at the rate of $150 per habitable structure, which is defined as a building that can be occupied for residential use. Owners of habitable structures who are also within the boundaries of a local fire protection agency will receive a reduction of $35 per habitable structure.
This fee will fund a variety of important fire prevention services within the SRA including brush clearance and activities to improve forest health so the forest can better withstand wildfire.

Note: The transfer of title does not trigger the fee.  The notice of the Fire Prevention Fee has been included in Disclosure Source NHD Reports since September 2011.
For more information about the Fire Prevention Fee visit:

http://firepreventionfee.org/sra_faqs.php



clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 

Wednesday, August 22, 2012

Sierra Oaks, Wilhaggin, Del Dayo and Shelfield - Sales Data for July 2012



There were 12 homes sold in Sierra Oaks, Wilhaggin, Del Dayo and Shelfield in the month of July, 2012. This is a decrease from the 18 sold in  June, 2012.  Here are the addresses and specific details:








Currently there are: 42 Active listings, 2 Active short sale listings, 8 Short Sales waiting for lender approval and 21 Pending Sales

If you would like more information (pictures, listing history, what type of sales they were, etc.) feel free to call or email and I’d be happy to provide that for you.  Call or email me if you are looking to buy or sell in the Sierra Oaks, Wilhaggin, Del Dayo and Shelfield areas.

clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 
www.BHGshortsales.com

Arden Park and Arden Oaks - Sales Data for July 2012



There were 12 homes sold in Arden Park and Arden Oaks in July, 2012.  That is a vast increase from the 5 sold in the month of June 2012.  Here are the addresses and specific information:










Currently there are: 23 Active listings, 2 Active short sale listings, 1 Short Sales waiting for lender approval and 11 Pending Sales

If you would like more information (pictures, listing history, what type of sales they were, etc.) feel free to call or email and I’d be happy to provide that for you.  Call or email me if you are looking to buy or sell in the Arden Park or Arden Oaks area.

clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 
www.BHGshortsales.com

Elmhurst and Tahoe Park Sales Data - July 2012 (Sacramento, Ca)



There were 16 homes sold in Elmhurst and Tahoe Park in the month of July, 2012.  That is a increase from the 13 homes sold in the area in the month of June 2012.  Here are the addresses and specific information.








Currently there are: 8 Active listings, 5 Active short sale listings, 21 Short Sales waiting for lender approval and 14 Pending Sales

If you would like more information (pictures, listing history, what type of sales they were, etc.) feel free to call or email and I’d be happy to provide that for you.  Call or email me if you are looking to buy or sell in the Tahoe Park / Elmhurst area.
clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 
www.BHGshortsales.com

Land Park and Curtis Park Sales Data - July 2012 (Sacramento, Ca)



There were 20 homes sold in Land Park and Curtis Park in the month of July 2012 .  That is a slight decrease from the 
22 homes sold in the month of  June 2012.  Here are the addresses and specific information.
























Currently there are: 32 Active listings, 2 Active short sale listings, 15 Short Sales waiting for lender approval and 19 Pending Sales

If you would like more information (pictures, listing history, what type of sales they were, etc.) feel free to call or email and I’d be happy to provide that for you.  Call or email me if you are looking to buy or sell in the Land Park or Curtis Park area.

clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 
www.BHGshortsales.com

East Sacramento: McKinley Park, Fab 40's, River Park, East Sac, East Portal Park - Sales Data for July 2012



There were 27 homes sold in East Sacramento in the month of July, 2012.  That is an decrease from the 32 homes sold in the area in the month of June 2012 .  Here are the addresses and specific information.





Currently there are: 54 Active listings, 1 Active short sale listings, 14Short Sales waiting for lender approval and 36 Pending Sales



If you would like more information (pictures, listing history, what type of sales they were, etc.) feel free to call or email and I’d be happy to provide that for you.  Call or email me if you are looking to buy or sell in the East Sacramento area.

clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 
www.BHGshortsales.com

Rosemont Sales in July 2012 (Sacramento, Ca)



There were 20 homes sold in Rosemont in the month of July, 2012.  That is slight decrease from the 21      that sold in June.  Here are the addresses and specific information.






 Currently there are: 9 Active listings, 1 Active short sale listings, 33 Short Sales waiting for lender approval and 27Pending Sales

If you would like more information (pictures, listing history, what type of sales they were, etc.) feel free to call or email and I’d be happy to provide that for you.  Call or email me if you are looking to buy or sell in the 95826 zip code.  Check back each month for the updated statistics, as I keep a close eye on the 95826 zip code, where I live and own rental property.  Let me know if there are any particular properties you have questions about. 

clear skies,
Doug Reynolds
 
www.BHGshortsales.com

College Greens / Glenbrook Sales in July 2012 (Sacramento, Ca)


There were 23 homes sold in College Greens / Glenbrook for the month of July, 2012.  That is a slight increase from the 14 sold in June.  Here are the addresses and specific information.








 Currently there are: 9 Active listings, 1 Active short sale listings, 27  Short Sales waiting for lender approval and 33 Pending Sales


If you would like more information (pictures, listing history, what type of sales they were, etc.) feel free to call or email and I’d be happy to provide that for you.  Call or email me if you are looking to buy or sell in the 95826 zip code.  Check back each month for the updated statistics, as I keep a close eye on the 95826 zip code, where I live and own rental property.  Let me know if there are any particular properties you have questions about. 

clear skies,
Doug Reynolds